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Leiderman: "We can not commit to housing prices in the coming year, it is not reliable"
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Surprise: Consumer Price Index for January fell at twice the rate expected in the capital market, 0.6%. As a result of this reduction amounts to actual inflation now, the calculated 12 months back, only 1.4% - which is lower so far from the center economic bubbles of the annual target range (1% to 3%).
Read more Bcllachlist: IMF: Housing prices may fall by 10% or more within five years the Minister of Housing: "Housing prices will fall in 2015 by double digits," Israel does not have to become a third world country is also expected inflation for the next 12 months, which calculated by the Bank of Israel according to analysts' forecasts in the lower center economic bubbles of the target and stabilized in recent months to 1.7%. The trend of the past four months inflation also reflects an average price increase is much lower, at an annual rate of only 0.6%.
Decline in the index last month contributed mainly a decrease in the consumption of the following: economic bubbles clothing (8.5%), footwear (5.2%), owner-occupied dwelling (0.9%) of water for domestic consumption (3.9%), economic bubbles Washing and cosmetics (4.2%), cucumbers (18.1 %), white cheese spread (6.5%) and bread and pastry products (1%). These decreases were partially offset by increases in prices recorded for oils and fuels for vehicles (0.5%), foreign cigarettes (2.5%), public transportation (3.4%), tomatoes economic bubbles (14.7%) and eggplant (60.2%).
Housing price index, which section economic bubbles has the greatest weight CPI basket, fell last month by 0.6%. Index for owner-occupied housing services, which measures the changes actually new leases signed in the last two months, fell sharply in January, a 0.9% relative, whereas the overall rental index rose last month by a paltry 0.2%.
January index is not expected to affect the interest rate for March, and it is estimated the Monetary Committee of the Bank of Israel economic bubbles will decide at the end of this month to keep interest rates unchanged at 1%. Like the previous three months, again the main reason for the expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged is the Bank of Israel's estimated current interest rate environment is also suitable for the level of inflation is within the target range (3%, 1%), and recently signing a slowdown particular level of economic activity.
Pedigree Services, Chief Investment economic bubbles Officer at Hellman Aldouby investment, said linked surprising: "January index indicates that the problem of inflation in Israel, and allows a further interest rate cut, but not sure that will contribute to a further reduction in the exchange rate or growth."
Ori Greenfeld, director of macro peaks, said: "The surprise in the CPI in January was mainly due to property owner services fell 0.9%, and food prices fell 0.8%. Decline economic bubbles in food prices that suits decline economic bubbles recorded last year, the wholesale prices of food can be Learn the signs of low demand, which make it difficult for producers to maintain high prices.
"On the other hand, the decline economic bubbles in housing prices is not possible to learn anything, let alone draw a trend change economic bubbles in the housing market. Occupied dwelling index consists of new leases and renewed only in recent years we have seen that the index tends to be very volatile in the winter months. In addition, housing prices continued their rise and increased 1.5% so despite the sharp drop in rental prices probably comes to a sharp deviation from the trend. "
Jonathan Katz and economists Leader Capital Markets said that "the January index indicates a low inflation environment the most. Eight of the ten major categories were negative. Core inflation (CPI excluding energy and food) fell to an annual rate of only 0.7% from 1.3% in December. This environment Low inflation target Bank of Israel indicates weakness in domestic demand.
"However, in the past we have given a 40% probability of a lower interest rate, it seems that there are two reasons economic bubbles to never take interest now. First, the CPA survey of house prices rose by 1.5% in the latest survey and 8% in the last 12 months. Recall IMF warns of property bubble. Second, Israel's foreign trade data indicate an improvement in the Israeli economy with an increase in exports and imports in all components. As long as the Fed continues on tapering, not reasonable to expect a lower interest rate in Israel. "
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