Until now, there has been optimism that SA will remain largely unharmed, but don

Christ will always accept the faith that puts its trust in Him. -Andrew Murray......Dawid: oblique rotation Ek is baie benoud; laat ons tog val in die hand van die HERE, want sy barmhartighede is groot, maar laat my in die hand van mense nie val nie.-2 Sam 24:14
Ek lees die volgende in FINANCIAL MAIL van 21 November 2008: " South Africa has been given a sharp wake-up call . The fact that two rating agencies have downgraded SA's outlook to "negative", and predictions by the International Monetary Fund of a deep and severe global recession have tipped the scales. SA has been found wanting. Can we survive this economic storm? A hint of panic is now setting in. With the rapid deterioration in global growth and the financing environment over the past month, it is no longer possible to believe that SA will emerge oblique rotation unscathed. The worst of the storm is fast approaching and will test the cracks of every country's macroeconomic construction, not least SA's. But even as economists scramble to revise down their domestic growth forecasts, there is denial among the population about how much more pain could be inflicted..." Lees asb verder oblique rotation by opmerking/s... oblique rotation
Until now, there has been optimism that SA will remain largely unharmed, but don't be fooled: the outlook is bleak. Even if SA escapes a full recession, it will be a year or more of painfully weak growth. And there remains the risk of something worse: contagion from a teetering Eastern Europe could ignite a replay of the 1997-1998 Asian emerging markets crisis. In all this, SA is being forced to acknowledge that its huge external vulnerability - a current account deficit equal to 7,3% of GDP or R164bn/year - is a noose tightening oblique rotation around its neck. When the current account (exports minus imports) is in deficit, it means SA lacks sufficient oblique rotation foreign oblique rotation exchange from exports to cover its import bill or, put differently, we spend more than we save. SA is living beyond its means and relying on foreign savings to plug the gap. The consensus that SA will enjoy a relatively soft landing is rapidly unravelling. "Many countries not at the centre of the current turmoil will suffer terribly and tragically," said finance minister Trevor Manuel earlier this week, on his return from the G20 meeting. He warned: "SA should be under no illusions that our economy will suffer along with the rest of the world." A few months ago, there was consensus that though household consumption oblique rotation would remain weak until mid-2009, (at which time falling inflation and interest rates would spur a gradual recovery), public-sector fixed investment would remain robust - enabling SA to grow at about 3% next year. Now, more economists are expecting oblique rotation GDP growth to be 2% or less next year, with decided downside risks. Behind the gloomy outlook is the realisation that it is highly unlikely that SA will be able to finance a current account deficit averaging above 8% of GDP for the next few years. In recent years, the commodity boom and global liquidity glut ensured that the deficit was comfortably financed. But given the global credit crunch, recessionary environment oblique rotation and extreme risk aversion towards oblique rotation emerging markets, it is no longer reasonable to expect SA to find about R160bn/year in foreign savings to fund a deficit oblique rotation of this size. Indeed, foreign portfolio outflows were R50bn in October - by far the biggest oblique rotation withdrawal of foreign capital in a month - while the rand has lost around 45% of its value against the dollar this year. This means the rand will remain weaker for longer (the rand adjusts automatically oblique rotation to bring the balance of payments back into balance). But it also implies that government will not get all the foreign financing required to carry out its R600bn infrastructure programme - the one pillar being relied on to prop up the growth rate. "Government will push ahead... to try to secure the financing (including accessing development funding, as we have seen with Eskom), but our worry is that, because of the difficulty of raising financing, the infrastructure programme might be delayed," says Konrad Reuss, MD of Standard & Poor's SA. Along with Fitch rating agency, oblique rotation Standard & Poor's downgraded SA's credit rating outlook from "stable" to "negative" last week (see story "Policy is pivotal"). oblique rotation There is also concern that the Reserve Bank will be reluctant to cut rates in this environment, not only because a weak rand will prolong inflationary pressures, but also because a revival in consumer spending will increase imports, worsening the current account deficit. There is even a danger oblique rotation that a renewed bout of severe rand weakness could prompt the Bank to hike rates as it did in 1996, 1998 and 2001. If SA is forced to delay monetary easing and its investment plans when growth is slowing oblique rotation rapidly, there will be a far harder oblique rotation landing for the economy than is commonly envisaged. There are three basic scenarios, according to Absa Capital's hea